Jonathan and Sanusi
As Nigeria moves into what many have said could be a decisive year for the unity of the country, SIMON EJEMBI highlights some of the key moments expected in the year
The year 2013 is gone. It was an
eventful year – of scandals and open letters. It was the year of the
power sector privatisation and the ‘great merger’. It was the year the
Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressives Congress and
the All Nigeria’s Peoples Party merged to form the All Progressives
Congress and (attempt to) throw a spanner in the works of the Peoples
Democratic Party. Yes, 2013 was an eventful year, but it is gone and
2014 is here.
With so much brewing on the political
scene and Boko Haram still roaring now and then, it’s hard to predict
how the year will end. More so, with the likelihood that a plane could
suddenly fall out the sky as has been the case in the last two years.
However, from the signals spotted in 2013 and the ‘events schedule’ for
2013, the following are expected to shape 2014.
1. National Conference
Since 1999, there have been calls for
the convocation of a sovereign national conference, a gathering of
Nigerians from across the country to determine its fate. The calls
failed to yield any result until, well, now. The national political
reform conference organised in 2005 by the Olusegun Obasanjo
administration failed as a result of Obasanjo’s alleged third term
agenda and an apparent decision by delegates from the South-South and
their counterparts from the North to disagree on virtually everything.
Subsequently, the calls for the conference were subdued. However, in
2013, President Goodluck Jonathan surprised many when he announced that a
national conference would be held. Since the announcement, many have
discovered that the conference, once widely supported, is no longer
considered the ultimate solution to the growing divisions in the
country. Nevertheless, the Presidency says it would be held early 2014.
Whatever time it is held, the conference is bound to have a huge impact
on 2014 and on the country. In his ‘infamous’ open letter to Jonathan,
Obasanjo wrote of the conference, “Your later-day conversion into
National Conference is fraught with danger of disunity, confusion and
chaos if not well handled.” However, it turns out, the conference
remains one of the major events that will shape 2014.
2. Passage of the 2014 budget
When it comes to the passing of the
country’s budget, there is always one controversy or the other. In the
last two years, the National Assembly has not been satisfied with the
implementation of the budget and economists have not been happy with
parts of it. Even the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Governor, Mallam Lamido
Sanusi, feels it should have more allocations for capital expenditure,
but recurrent expenditure has continued to increase; and is set to rise
if the 2014 budget proposal is passed as it is. In addition to these
shortcomings, increasing animosity between the Executive and the
legislature, particularly the House of Representatives, means ‘sparks’
will fly before the budget is finally passed. A major indicator was when
the Minister of Finance, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, presented the budget
proposal to the Reps. They sent her away after a heated exchange with 50
questions to answer. That appears to be just the beginning.
3. The exit of Mallam Lamido Sanusi
Many in the banking industry heaved a
sigh of relief when Dr. Chukwuma Soludo was denied a second term as the
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria and the Managing Director, First Bank
of Nigeria Plc (at the time), a certain Mallam Lamido Sanusi, was
appointed to replace him. While some where happy for the right reasons
others were happy that the man who had sent them chasing N25bn
capitalisation, failure of which caused some of them to merge their
banks with others, would trouble them no more. Few months and several
failed stress tests later, smiles disappeared from a few faces as Sanusi
fired number of bank bosses in a reform that would leave people, who
once controlled empires to face the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission. The reforms aimed at strengthening the banking sector have
continued more recently with the decision to increase the Cash Reserve
Requirement of banks to 50 per cent and the CBN maintaining a monetary
tightening stance. Beyond the reforms and the fallout, Sanusi has
courted controversy and conflict with his bold pronouncements. He has
been in conflict with members of the National Assembly more than once.
It was so bad that the lawmakers considered stripping the CBN of its
autonomy. In 2012, he got labour leaders angry when he reportedly urged
the government to fire 50 per cent of civil servants. He was in the news
recently for accusing the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation of
failing to remit funds to the government. After years of controversy and
progress, his tenure ends in June and he has made it clear that he is
not interested in a second term. For those eager to see his back, it is
time to heave a sigh of relief once more. But for others, who believe
that the banking industry and the economy have benefitted from his
policy, his exit and the choice of who replaces him, would determine
which direction the country’s fiscal policy takes.
4. Elections in Osun and Ekiti states
The appointment of Prof. AttahiruJega as
the Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, ahead of the
2011 general elections was accepted by several stakeholders. The general
elections, which he guided INEC to conduct, were also accepted as a
fair attempt by many. Two years later, one shambolic election in Anambra
State appears to have changed the perception of many about him. Calls
for his resignation or removal were rife in some sectors, but he
survived. In 2014, governorship elections will be held in Osun and Ekiti
states. Both elections are vital in more than one way. For one, they
will be one last tests for INEC ahead of the 2015 elections. On the
other hand, they will provide an avenue for the All Progressives
Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party to battle for control of the
South-West. The outcome is bound to lead to more than just court cases.
They could lead to the exit of Jega or political upheavals. And more.
5. Centenary celebrations
In 2013, news broke that the Federal
Government had ordered gold-plated, Coat of Arms-inscribed iPhones as
gift items ahead of the country’s centenary celebrations. With the
government already considered wasteful by many Nigerians, the social
media and opinion sections of several newspapers were filled with
comments and articles reflecting the disappointment of the electorate.
Even though the government denied the report and the source also
recanted his claims, the centenary celebrations, which will be held in
2014, remains a controversial topic. And it will surely affect how the
year turns out. Already, beyond urging the government to avoid wasting
more resources to celebrate looth anniversary of the amalgamation of the
North and South in 1914, some have argued that instead of celebrating,
Nigeria should be considering undoing the actions of colonial masters
long dead.
6. APC/PDP tussle and the House of Reps
The emergence of the All Progressives
Congress has presented the PDP with what appears to be its biggest
challenge in years. Governors and lawmakers elected under the PDP
platform have defected to the APC at an unprecedented rate. As it
stands, the APC now has the majority of members in the House. Not ready
to lose control, the PDP is making efforts through the court to have the
seats of Reps that have defected declared vacant, but if that fails,
the APC will in 2014 have to produce the key officers of the House.
Should that happen, permutations in the National Assembly and nationwide
politically will take a new direction. Beyond the effect of the tussle
in legislature and in the states, reports that the likes of former
Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, could join the APC in 2014
indicate that the tussle is set to continue.
7. Sports
Sports have always been a unifying
factor, especially football. This year, what is considered to be the
biggest ‘show’ on earth – the FIFA World Cup – will take place in
Brazil. And Nigeria qualified for the tourney. Preparations for the
tournament and the performance of the Super Eagles in the tournament
will do more than determine the fate of Head Coach, Stephen Keshi, and
his players. Having emerged victorious in the Africa Cup of Nations,
there is hope that the country will surpass its woeful performance at
the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
8. Government’s automotive policy
A new national automotive policy
announced last year by the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment,
Mr. Olusegun Aganga, is expected to take effect in 2014 and it is
expected to be a factor in the year.
This is because car buyers will be made
to pay more. The impact of such a development, according to some could
even extend to transport fares.
Under the policy, duties on both new and
used cars were upwardly reviewed to 70 per cent (35 per cent levy and
35 per cent duty), from the previous 20 per cent flat rate. Duty for
fully built buses meant for commercial purposes will now be 35 per cent
instead of the previous 10 per cent duty.
9. Voter registration
In November, INEC Chairman, Jega, said
there would be no new voter registration for the 2015 general elections
because the commission had no money and facilities to do that.
However, the high number of names said
to have been missing in voter registers during the Anambra State
governorship elections and their role in the low turnout for the
supplementary elections, makes the issue of voter registration a major
one in 2014 – ahead of 2015 general elections.
10. Oil theft and dwindling national revenue
Oil theft remains a major challenge in
Nigeria due to the country’s reliance on oil revenue. Increased oil
theft and bunkering often affects the country’s revenue and power
generation. Gas shortage at power plants has often been attributed to
the activities of pipeline vandals. In 2013, the CBN governor accused
the NNPC of failing to remit billions to the government. Though he later
reduced the figures, this issue is not going away anytime soon.
11. Jonathan’s ambition
Some political analysts believe that
President Goodluck Jonathan could shock the opposition by opting out of
the 2015 race, but many others believe it is only a matter of time
before he declares his intention. Many believe the majority of the
president’s actions are calculated to make his second term ambition a
reality. Whatever, the President decides, it will have a huge impact on
the year.
12. Boko Haram, insecurity
The activities of Boko Haram remain a
threat with the once-thought-to-be-dead Shekau releasing video
recordings once more. As the country navigates what is believed to be a
decisive year ahead of 2015, the terrorist group and other issues of
security and how the country handles them will be vital, considering the
prediction that the country will disintegrate in 2015.
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