September 18, 2014 by Eniola Akinkuotu
Cameron, Jonathan
In this piece, ENIOLA AKINKUOTU speaks to experts on the implication of the Scottish independence referendum for Nigeria
Forty seven years ago, a civil war
erupted in Africa’s most populous nation after the South-East declared
itself as the Republic of Biafra. The war, which lasted for two and a
half years, was fostered by the Federal Government on the belief that
Nigeria must remain one country.
Today, however, an irony is playing out
as the United Kingdom-which not only colonised Nigeria but also created
the country after amalgamating the northern and southern
protectorates-is on the verge of division.
On Thursday (today), a referendum on
whether Scotland should break away from the United Kingdom to become an
independent country will take place. Ideally, such should have no impact
on Nigerians who live thousands of miles away from Europe. However,
today, the world has become a global village where political decisions
in one country could have a ripple effect on the entire world.
Besides, should Scotland gain its
independence, it could have both adverse and positive effects on the
millions of Nigerians who study, work and live in the UK.
Presently, Scotland covers the northern
third of the island of Great Britain and is part of the UK. Scottish
waters consist of a large sector of the North Atlantic and the North
Sea, containing the largest oil reserves in the European Union. This has
given Aberdeen, the third-largest city in Scotland, the title of
Europe’s oil capital.
According to Wikipedia,
Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product, including oil and gas produced in
Scottish waters, was estimated at £150bn in 2012. If Scotland becomes
independent, it would hold 95 per cent of the UK’s current oil and gas
reserves if they were split geographically using a median line from the
English-Scottish border.
From the foregoing, it would be safe to
say that Scotland is like the Niger-Delta of Nigeria, with most of its
oil wells in Aberdeen.
It is probably one of the reasons why
British Prime Minister, David Cameron, told Scottish voters in a speech
in Aberdeen that separation would be a “painful divorce”. Cameron adds
that the promises being made by pro-independence politicians are too
good to be true.
Should Scotland gain its independence
today, changes could be made on its foreign policy, economic ties,
immigration, currency, visa requirements and many more.
For instance, the Scottish government
proposes that anyone with a Scottish parent or grandparent will be able
to apply for registration as a Scottish citizen, and any foreign
national living in Scotland legally, or who has lived in Scotland for at
least 10 years at any time and has an ongoing connection to Scotland,
shall be able to apply for naturalisation as a Scottish citizen. The
blueprint made available by the government, however, does not say if a
person born in Scotland automatically becomes a citizen.
Also, the programmes of legislation
enacted by the Scottish Parliament have seen a divergence in the
provision of public services compared to the rest of the UK. For
instance, university education and care services for the elderly are
free at point of use in Scotland, while fees are paid in the rest of the
UK.
Presently, it is difficult to know the
number of Nigerians living in Scotland because most of the statistics
available shows the number of Nigerians living in the UK as a whole. So,
it may be almost impossible to know exactly how many Nigerians would be
affected.
An International Relations expert, Dr.
David Aworawo, who lectures at the History and Strategic Department in
the University of Lagos, told our correspondent during an interview that
Scotland getting independence could have a negative effect on Nigerians
in Scotland.
He added that the manifesto of
pro-independence politicians in Scotland are too rightist in nature and
could have far-reaching consequences.
He said, “One is not sure if they will
vote in support of the independence or against so we can only speak in
conjectures. But speculatively, if the ‘yes’ votes have it, it will be
difficult to make concrete statements but from the comments of the
pro-independence leaders, it seems they might went to set up a
right-wing government and if that is the case, the implications will
definitely be negative.
“Because under the brother arrangement of
the UK where you have Scotland, Ireland, England and Wales, the
liberalism which has characterised British policies for the past two
centuries has reflected in their activities generally.
“But if Scotland should be a sovereign
state, there is a likelihood that it will be more inward looking and
history shows that such governments are not favourable to people from
the outside. So, I can speculatively say that if Scotland gets
independence, the consequences may not be good for Nigerians in
Scotland. But its bi-lateral relationship with Nigeria will depend on
Scotland’s foreign policy should they get independence.”
Aworawo said Scotland getting independence could also revive calls for secession in Nigeria.
He said, “It could have a spiral effect.
Since 1919, the Versaille Peace Treaty makes elaborate provision for
self-determination. You will recall that Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and
Poland were created out of respect for the principle of
self-determination.
“Poland also was carved out of Russia and
got independence and since then, the world has favoured granting
independence for those who want it. Apart from what is happening in the
UK, there is already such a pattern across the world but it all depends
on how the countries choose to do it. Some choose to go to war, some do
it peacefully, for some, the demand for it is not so strong.
“But what we forget is that the bigger
the country, the better as long as there is fairness and justice within.
If countries can create fairness and justice within, the tendency to
create an independent state will be less. But the global system
encourages self-determination.”
However, a former Ambassador to Belgium,
Prof. Aalaba Ogunsanwo, told our correspondent that Scotland getting
independence would have no negative effect on Nigeria. Ogunsanwo said
Scotland getting independence would inspire self-determination in
Nigeria, which many ethnic groups are clamouring for.
He said, “In terms of implications for
Nigeria, we are both members of the commonwealth and Scotland is even a
nation on its own. There will not be any implication for Nigerians
abroad. Scotland will not just wake up and say they don’t want any
foreign students there. Nigeria’s High Commission will continue to
relate with Scotland but a time will come when they may set up a
diplomatic mission based on our interest in Scotland.
“I don’t see any negative impact for
Nigerians as such if they gain independence. The status quo will remain
the same. The principle of self-determination should be applicable to
all. You do not force a people to be part of a country. A people are a
part of a nation when they feel they are.
“The type of thing we experienced during
the civil war should never happen again. If any part of the country
wishes to go voluntarily, it should be done peacefully as far as I am
concerned. There is no need to use force in order to keep a people as
part of a particular country, the principle of self-determination should
be accepted.”
In a similar vein, a research fellow at
the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Dr. Godwin Ichimi, says
Scotland gaining independence will have a positive effect for
Nigerians.
Ichimi, who bagged his doctorate degree
in Scotland, said Scotland getting its independence could increase trade
between it and Nigeria and even favour foreign students because
Scotland accommodates foreign students.
Ichimi added that if Scotland does well
after gaining its independence, it could encourage self-determination in
Nigeria which could also be a positive development.
He said, “If they vote ‘yes’, it will be
an example for a lot of countries and people calling for
self-determination. As you know, there have been moves in that direction
for some ethnic groups in Nigeria and we should start looking at these
issues.
“I schooled in Scotland and I don’t see
how this independence will affect us negatively. They are always anxious
to attract foreign students. Do not forget that the two years
post-study visa was kick-started by Scotland itself so I don’t see how
Scotland going its way will negatively impact Nigerians in Scotland.
“I think an independent Scotland will be
in a hurry to attract students from Nigeria and all over the world. And
if truth be told, we are a very major source of revenue to their
economy. Also, many Nigerian businessmen find Scotland to be very
attractive just like students so I think there is room for expansion of
our relationship with Scotland. We have nothing to worry about but my
only concern is that it might send dangerous signals to sub-national
groups clamouring for self-determination and typical of developing
countries in Africa, they might wrongly assume it is good without
considering some basic parameters that makes it possible for Scotland to
decide to go their way such as a stable economy, political stability,
having its own currency etc.”
As Nigeria’s colonisers attempt to tread a new path, it remains unclear if Nigeria will not follow suit in the future
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